作者:邢奕 发布时间:2021-02-13 来源:中国国际进口博览会客户端+收藏本文
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第三届进博会如期举办,这对于世界释放了怎样的信号?
针对这一问题,富达平台金融研究中心主任孙立坚教授表示,首先我们看到这次进博会参展的企业也好,机构也好,分布很广。其次,世界各地的企业也看到,中国未来的开放政策越来越加大,再加上中国疫情的管理在开放的环境下面又给世界走出经济低谷带来了希望;更看到了中国老百姓的消费能力。
他认为,中国将逐步成为一个进口的大国。在这个进程中,我们核心竞争力提升了,比如人民币的跨境使用场景在进口的增加当中会大幅度的增加。在这个进程中,我们的商品贸易顺差会大幅度减少,但是相反的我们服务贸易的逆差也会大幅度的减少。这个结构的转型,恰恰是中国高质量发展的一个印证。他表示,如今,我们有进博会,上海正在打造“五大中心”,还在推进长三角一体化,这三张牌能够形成一个非常好的良性互动机制。海外的嘉宾也非常看好中国三个力量给他们带来的商机。“今后,我们可以靠服务贸易,靠我们做中国品牌,做中国技术,能够通过一个非常好的市场的整合能力,能够面向世界。”孙立坚表示。
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现在线上交流、线上贸易也很便捷,为什么这么多外商还是愿意来线下?
孙立坚表示,首先是,很多商家到上海来寻找合作伙伴,通过当面的交流和了解对方来寻找新的未来的一个合作,“这是一个生财之道。”孙立坚说。
其次,外企包括外企的研发机构,需要了解中国市场,需要了解中国的消费者。线上线下去寻找自己贴切的合作伙伴和市场的偏好在哪里,线上把成本降下来、把潜在的客户的消费能力挖掘出来,所以这两者的结合是未来中国的一个增长的红利。“在疫情影响下,国外企业为了生存,为了自己的发展,他们绝对不会放过今天已经成为世界第二大经济体的中国给他们带来的一个全新的商机。”他表示。
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进博会在“双循环”的新发展格局下,扮演什么样的角色呢?
“进博会提供了一个非常好的连接外和内的一个载体。”孙立坚认为,通过进博会,我们是重构国内外企业的合作机制,然后把外国的商品带进中国的市场,带动中国的消费,让世界分享我们中国的红利。这就是合作共赢人类命运共同体,通过我们的内循环释放出商机。“现在还有一个外循环是什么呢?就是中国的技术,中国的服务通过今天的内循环,让来到我们中国的海外商家了解中国企业的成长、了解中国企业的技术和服务的能力。”孙立坚表示,将来我们能看到越来越多的国外商家企业来到中国,不光是看重中国的市场,还会把中国具有性价比优势的技术、品牌和服务,带向他们的国家,使我们的服务贸易伴随中国高质量的发展和企业核心竞争力的上升而不断增长,“那么,这个就是进博会给我们嫁接海内外的双循环互动机制一个非常重要的载体。”孙立坚强调。
随着RCEP、降低关税、《外商投资法》等举措的推出,进博会的作用也会日益凸显。孙立坚表示,“进博会将来非常重要的使命就是要创造非常好的交流载体,使得外循环和内循环有机地结合起来。”他认为,未来,大家的信心能够恢复,也有追求美好生活的共同心愿,进博会将会是一个非常好地把市场、大众人民的手,能够牵起来能够交流起来的一个重要的载体。未来,进博会不仅是一个物理上的办展和办会,而且还成为立体交流的平台,有很多可以想象的,做业务的空间,也会被世界越来越认可。
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未来进博会将如何发展?
孙立坚表示,首先,进博会将持续释放出非常珍贵的信息,提供给我们的决策部门来引领我们今天的贸易怎么更好地去进行、负面清单如何管理等等。
其次,进博会将和海南自由贸易港、上海自贸区等形成非常好的联动机制。通过进博会能够让海外企业深入到中国市场,这将带来服务需求的增长、服务业需求的增长。这些新的增长点,恰恰是我们改革的切入点。
第三,我希望要很好地利用进博会这6天的场景和6天带来的溢出效应,整理好进博会的数据库,深入分析数据背后蕴含的商机,为国家的决策提供更好的素材。
英文版访谈
China's new demographic dividend — the rising consumption power of its large population — has drawn multinational companies to the China International Import Expo, said Sun Lijian, director of the Financial Research Center at Fudan Development Institute.
In the past, the country's demographic dividend was the supply of cheap labor, but now it is the high household savings, which could turn into orders for foreign companies,” said Sun. The CIIE has been an important platform for foreign companies to seek partnerships to tap the booming Chinese market.”
According to the People's Bank of China, the country's national household savings reached 93.4 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 11.3 trillion yuan, in 2020.
Although the per capita savings in China cannot compared with those in developed countries, the advanced logistics and mature e-commerce sectors have boosted the country's consumption in recent years,” Sun said.
If everyone spends 1 yuan online, the total expenditure would amount to 1.4 billion yuan — e-commerce powered by the huge population has immense business potential.”
Sun noted that while COVID-19 has hurt the consumption in many countries, China was the only major economy that achieved economic growth in 2020, with its GDP expanding by 2.3 percent.
This has helped many multinational companies deal with the pandemic, and they will not ignore the business opportunities in the world's second largest economy,” he said.
Despite information technologies making communication and e-commerce much more convenient than before, face-to-face interaction at events like CIIE remains vital for businesspeople to know their customers and clients, he added.
The exchanges made in the six days at the expo could bring long-term cooperation which lasts for more than 360 days,” he said.
Speaking of the spill over effect of the expo, Sun said foreign business people might visit their Chinese counterparts across the country, tour the Yangtze River Delta, and go to the free trade zones in Hainan Island, all of which would enhance mutual understanding and push forward the country's reform and opening up.
It's not just about imports. Chinese companies and brands can also get recognized by their foreign counterparts, and go to foreign market through opportunities brought by CIIE,” Sun said. There are positive externalities of holding the annual expo.”
——By Xing Yi