作者: 发布时间🚉:2020-11-02 来源:富达平台中美友好互信合作计划+收藏本文
2020年的美国大选有“乱花渐入迷人眼”之势🧑🏽🚒。本文认为,今年美国总统竞选的新特征可以概括为政治参与的扩大和政治制度化程度的降低🦟,使得总统竞选程序的稳定程度下降,11月3日之后的权力交接可能从仪式性过程转变为实体过程。总统选举争夺战呈现出的若干变化,也为美国政治更深层次的变革积蓄了动能☝🏽。
01
涟漪变波浪🦺:
政治参与范围逐步扩大
世界顶尖医学杂志《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)和《新英格兰医学杂志》(The New England Journal of Medicine)分别于5月17日和10月8日发表社论💉,以期刊官方名义谴责特朗普政府在此次新冠疫情中的表现,呼吁美国人民把特朗普赶出白宫🙆🏽♀️。在过去的200多年中,《新英格兰医学杂志》作为享誉世界的顶级学术期刊🧑⚕️,从未涉足过政治领域或是表明过政治立场⛹🏻。自然科学领域的权威期刊《自然》(Science)也于10月5日刊发长文《特朗普是怎么损害科学的》(How Trump damaged science-and why it could takes decades to recover),认为特朗普的政策对美国的科学和科学研究机构造成巨大破坏🧍🏻♀️☔️,要数十年才能恢复。
图为《自然》杂志网站页面,标题为“特朗普是怎么损害科学的”。
图为《纽约时报》16日社论版文章
02
规范变失范🚶♂️➡️?
总统选举的制度化程度有所下降
03
变革或将到来?
党争并不止步于选举政治
图为《时代周刊》10月22日发布的新封面😊。
最后,美国的选举政治变化为我们思考认同政治(或称身份政治)提供了生动的素材📲。过去较长时间内🤷🏽♀️,在欧美国家主导政治生活的议题是大政府与小政府之争🎅🏼、经济社会领域的左右之争,今天这种左右之争越来越多地被认同政治所取代🐜。传统国家能否适应新社会,旧的政治制度🧜🏼、政治代表结构和斗争规则是否能够顺应新的公共议题,是决定未来政治发展方向的重要问题🏊🏼♂️。纵观美国历史,美国政治的革新从来都是引领性的、内生性的🦹🏼♂️🫸,美国政治的今天可能是其他代议制国家的明天。福山曾经提出“历史终结论”,断定世界历史终结于西式自由民主。现在看来🏋🏻♀️,不仅世界历史没有终结🧄,美国的历史也远未终结。
参考资料
[1]Annie Linskey, Philip Rucker and Sean Sullivan: Trump seeks momentum from debate while Biden focuses on pandemic, retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-seeks-momentum-fromdebate-while-biden-focuses-on-pandemic/2020/10/23/c9a00384-1543-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html
[2]Realclearpolitics: President Trump Job Approval Polls, retrieved from https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
[3]Fivethrityeight Latest Polls, retrieved from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
[4]Paul Kengor: Steelworkers Union Sticks It to Trump,https://spectator.org/steelworkers-union-trump/
[5]David Nakamura, Sean Sullivan:As Obama stumps for Biden, another chance to vanquish Trump and protect his own legacy, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-obama-stumps-for-biden-another-chance-to-vanquish-trump-and-protect-his-own-legacy/2020/10/23/b546153e-1545-11eb-ad6f-36c93e6e94fb_story.html
[6]Amber Phillips:How politically damaging were Biden’s comments about closing down the oil industry? Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/how-politically-damaging-were-bidens-comments-about-closing-down-oil-industry/
[7]Live updates: Trump, Biden campaigns move into final stretch after debate, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/live-updates-trump-biden-campaigns-move-into-final-stretch-after-debate
[8]Louis Casiano:Member of far-right Boogaloo Bois arrested in connection to rioting during George Floyd protests, https://www.foxnews.com/us/boogaloo-bois-arrested-rioting-floyd-protests
[9] Paul Conner, Jake Gibson:FBI to interview Hunter Biden's ex-associate Bobulinski, Senate committee says, retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fbi-interview-request-hunter-biden-ex-associate-tony-bobulinski-senate-committee
[10]Charles Creitz🫱🏽:Pence calls on Biden to 'come forward and come clean' with answers on son Hunter's scandal, retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mike-pence-joe-biden-hunter-biden-come-clean
[11] Caitlin McFall:Pollster Frank Luntz: If Trump defies polls again 'my profession is done’, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pollster-frank-luntz-if-trump-defies-polls-again-in-2020-my-profession-is-done
[12] Jeremy Herb, Zachary Cohen, Evan Perez and Paul P. Murphy🦹🏼♂️:Feds say Russia and Iran have interfered with the presidential election, https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/politics/fbi-election-security/index.html
[13]Newt Gingrich: Trump should emphasize three things in closing days of campaign, https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-biden-final-debate-newt-gingrich
[14] MATT PEARCESTAFF WRITER🤱🏻:Q&A: What is President Trump’s relationship with far-right and white supremacist groups? https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-30/la-na-pol-2020-trump-white-supremacy
[15] Ezra Klein:The eerie stability of Trump’s approval rating, explained, https://www.vox.com/2020/9/2/21409364/trump-approval-rating-2020-election-voters-coronavirus-convention-polls
[16] Jess Eng, Madison Dong, Kevin Schaul and Reuben Fischer-Baum:How turnout and swing voters could get Trump or Biden to 270, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/voter-turnout-270-trump-biden/?hpid=hp_no-name_graphic-swing-11a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_no-name_graphic-swing-11a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
[17]How unpopular is Donald Trump? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
[18] Jacob Pramuk: Coronavirus concerns fall and Trump approval ticks higher in swing states, CNBC/Change Research poll finds, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/26/coronavirus-concerns-fall-and-trump-approval-rises-in-2020-swing-states.html
[19] JACOB JARVIS:Donald Trump's Approval Rating Is Healing Steadily Before Election: Polls, https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-1529058
[20] Philip Bump:Kellyanne Conway predicted big Trump leads in swing states by now. That hasn’t happened, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/03/kellyanne-conway-predicted-big-trump-leads-swing-states-by-now-that-hasnt-happened/
[21]Are Black Lives Matter protesters peaceful or violent? Depends on whom you ask, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/08/24/are-black-lives-matter-protesters-peaceful-or-violent-depends-whom-you-ask/
[22] Presidential Ratings -- Issues Approval, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1726/presidential-ratings-issues-approval.aspx
[23]Shanto Iyengar, Gaurav Sood, Yphtach Lelkes,“Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective On Polarization,” The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 76, No. 3, 2012, p. 405.
[24]Steven Fish, Neil Abrams,“The Polarization Paradox,” Journal of Democracy, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2020, p.183.
[25]赵可金:《老国家与新社会的错位:美国 政治极化的根源》,载《探索与争鸣》2020年第9期🫶,p57-63.
[26]赵可金:《把握未来——美国总统政治形态研究》。北京:北京大学出版社🤙,2013年版🪫。
[27]沈逸:拜登陷入选举“罗生门”,修电脑修出的大麻烦,https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1bT4y1F716?from=search&seid=16682524736178226575
[28]潘弘林:《终局辩论落幕:有序的辩论谁更有戏?》🩰,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wPWmkogFqhJF1y5RipNmpw
[29]党森:《美国选情速递:各方民调下特朗普与拜登的正面交锋》,/9d/85/c21253a236933/page.htm